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2 edition of Upper ocean thermal structure forecast evaluation of a model using synoptic data found in the catalog.

Upper ocean thermal structure forecast evaluation of a model using synoptic data

by William Fawver Johnson

  • 212 Want to read
  • 26 Currently reading

Published by Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California .
Written in English

  • Meteorology

  • ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL25409825M

    Ehud Strobach, Andrea Molod, Gael Forget, Jean-Michel Campin, Chris Hill, Dimitris Menemenlis, Patrick Heimbach, Consequences of different air-sea feedbacks on ocean using MITgcm and MERRA-2 forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems, Ocean . The data set marked for training is used to train the neural network. Verification cases are used to validate the model during training so that the model does not over-fit. The ANN stores the trained model and uses this model for predicting the outputs using the input parameters. The most popular algorithm for multi-layered networks is the back-.

    • HERE: Climatology and variance in upper-ocean thermal structure are investigated and compared to observational data to determine potential areas where the use of climatology-based initial conditions may result in errant upper-ocean temperatures • Focus for today – Comparison of Isaac and Ernesto AXBT observation data to climatological.   The temperature structure along a ship lane is shown in Fig. 1 and the vertical variation of temperature at a given point in Fig. 2. At the top 50m – m, the temperature remains almost constant as the waters in this layer are churned by the wind forcing. This layer is called the isothermal (iso for equal, thermal for heat) layer.

    The current ocean component of coupled models is inadequate for simulating the BoB’s upper-ocean thermal structure with fidelity. To further improve monsoon forecasts on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, we need new high-resolution and high-frequency observations over the BoB to fill the gap in our understanding of how the ocean. The qualitative use of the OHC information on the NHC intensity forecasts is also described. These results show that knowledge of the upper-ocean thermal structure is fundamental to accurately forecasting intensity changes of tropical cyclones, and that this .

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Upper ocean thermal structure forecast evaluation of a model using synoptic data by William Fawver Johnson Download PDF EPUB FB2

ABSTRACT Aone-dimensionalmodel(Camp,)isusedtosimulateoceanthermal structureresponsetosynopticscaleatmosphericforcingdataatsixloca. This paper provides a detailed description of the system and presents results illustrating its performance during a four-mouth test and evaluation period.

The forecast component, designated as the Thermodynamic Ocean Prediction System (TOPS), is a synoptic mixed-layer model that employs the MELLOR and Yamada () Level-2 turbulence parameterization scheme.

It includes advection Cited by: T1 - The thermal structure of the Upper Ocean. AU - Boccaletti, G̀iulio. AU - Pacanowski, Ronald C.

AU - Philander, S. George H. AU - Fedorov, Alexey V. PY - /4/1. Y1 - /4/1. N2 - The salient feature of the oceanic thermal structure is a remarkably shallow thermocline, especially in the Tropics and subtropics.

What factors determine Cited by: In situ observation of a buoys/moorings array and a model simulation were used to study the modulation of upper ocean thermal structure by Typhoon Kalmaegi in September The inertial period signals were significant after forcing of Kalmaegi, but they did not account for the net heat by: Reconstructing the thermal structure of the upper ocean: Insights from planktic foraminifera shell chemistry and alkenones in modern sediments of the tropical eastern Indian Ocean Mahyar Mohtadi,1 Delia W.

Oppo,2 Andreas Lückge,3 Ricardo DePol‐Holz,4,5 Stephan Steinke,1 Jeroen Groeneveld,1,6 Nils Hemme,7 and Dierk Hebbeln1Cited by: We have forced an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM, MOM_4) with surface observations at the WHOI mooring site in the Arabian Sea blended with other data and compared the thermal and salinity structures of the resulting simulations with observations.

The model is successful in reproducing observations during January-Julybut does. A newly available, extensive compilation of upper-ocean temperature profiles was used to study the vertical structure of thermal anomalies between the surface and m depth in the North Pacific.

In addition to atmospheric fields, we obtain upper-ocean structure from the ~° × ° NOAA/NCEP Environmental Model Center (EMC)/Climate Modeling Branch (CMB) Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS; Behringer and Xue ). We develop and test the MLR primary with the daily NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data.

Upper ocean heat content is a factor critical to the intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs). Because of the inhomogeneity of in situ observations in the North Indian Ocean, gridded temperature/salinity (T/S) profiles were derived from satellite data for – using a linear regression method.

The satellite derived T/S dataset covered the region of 10°S–32°N, 25°–°E. ocean. The impact of the coupled-model for both the TC and the larger (synoptic) scales is illustrated using NWP forecast experiments conducted during the life-cycle of TC Ike ().

The remainder of the manuscript is organized as follows. In section 2 we discuss the atmosphere and ocean model. We use Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA, version ) 5-day mean oceanic subsurface temperature profiles, available at ° spatial resolution, to estimate the oceanic parameters in the model (Carton and Giese ).To validate our results based on SODA reanalysis, we also used EN4 (v ) monthly mean subsurface temperature profiles from the Met Office Hadley Centre (Good et al.

Data, model, and methods a. Data We use Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA, version ) 5-day mean oceanic subsurface tempera-ture profiles, available at spatial resolution, to esti-mate the oceanic parameters in the model (Carton and Giese ). To validate our results based on SODA reanalysis, we also used EN4 (v ) monthly.

The accuracy of ocean thermal structure estimates obtained using simple enhancement depends a great deal on homogeneity of the oceanic region under consideration. Knowledgeable use of the observations thus requires under-standing of temporal and spatial scales of oceanic variability. Significant ocean thermal structure anomalies can range.

Introduction. It is now years since the publication of Jacob Bjerknes paper ‘On the structure of moving cyclones’ so it seems an appropriate time to celebrate this work and the research into extratropical cyclones that followed. The synoptic analysis methods developed by Bjerknes were applied by national operational weather services worldwide, and their theoretical interpretation.

NCEI receives and archives meteorological data from ships at sea, moored and drifting buoys, coastal stations, rigs, and platforms. The temporal frequency of the observations range from sub-hourly to six-hourly synoptic and are global in spatial coverage.

Global Marine Data (Data available beginning January 1, and ending J ). S.G. Philander, in Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences (Second Edition), The Atmosphere.

The atmospheric circulation in low latitudes corresponds mainly to direct thermal circulations driven by convection over the regions with the highest surface temperatures. Moisture-bearing trade winds converge onto these regions where the air rises in cumulus towers that provide plentiful rainfall locally.

The Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) is a system for assimilating oceanographic measurements into a coupled dynamical model of the deep ocean and sea-ice. It is used on a routine daily basis to make forecasts out to five days ahead representing/resolving the ocean’s mesoscale structure in selected regions.

assumes that the upper ocean thermal structure only plays a marginal role in tropical cyclone r,after a series of events in which tropical cyclones suddenly intensified when passing over features with a deep upper ocean mixed layer,it is now hypothesized that upper ocean thermal structure may play a more important role.

The warming of Earth is primarily due to accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, and more than 90 percent of this trapped heat is absorbed by the this heat is absorbed, ocean temperatures rise and water expands. This thermal expansion contributes to an increase in global sea ature measurements of the sea surface, taken by ships, satellites and drifting sensors.

structure in the absence of any winds, the thermal structure along the eastern boundary, is given. To complete and marry the existing theories for the oceanic thermal structure, this paper invokes the constraint of a balanced heat budget for the ocean.

The oceanic heat gain occurs primarily in the upwelling zones of the Tropics and. Abstract Using new in situ ocean subsurface observations from the Argo floats, best track typhoon data from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center, an ocean mixed layer model and other supporting.5 storms, and up to 20% for individual storms, with the maximum improvement for the 72–h forecasts.

The qualitative use of the OHC information on the NHC intensity forecasts is also described. These results show that knowledge of the upper-ocean thermal structure is fundamental to accurately forecasting inten.The weather over the North Atlantic Ocean, particularly in winter, is often characterized by strong eastward air-flow between the ‘Icelandic low’ and the ‘Azores high’, and by a.